Spring Training is finally here, bringing a wave of fresh updates from the camps and a welcome distraction from the off-season debates. But amidst the excitement, a bold question arises: Can we truly separate the impact of drafting from player development? This is the part most people miss when analyzing team strategies. And here's where it gets controversial: while individual player improvements are hard to attribute solely to development, organization-wide trends might reveal a team's developmental prowess. For instance, could the St. Louis Cardinals consistently turn more 45 FV prospects into average MLB players than other teams? This article delves into the intricate world of draft-and-development, exploring methodological challenges and preliminary findings. By combining prospect ranking data from Fangraphs with Zips projections, we aim to shorten the evaluation window and uncover trends. However, data wrangling is no small feat, and the process is far from complete. The analysis reveals interesting tidbits, such as the stickiness of initial FV grades and the trading patterns of prospects. But what does this mean for the Cardinals? Their high floor, low ceiling draft approach and recent trading activity raise questions. Are they bucking league trends, and what does this imply for their competitive model? As we navigate this complex landscape, one thing is clear: the Cardinals' development program, while not collapsed, may need to surpass league averages to sustain success. This analysis invites further exploration and discussion, so don't hesitate to share your thoughts and questions in the comments. Let's dive deeper into the data and uncover the secrets of draft-and-development together.
