Imagine trying to buy a home right now, only to watch prices climb higher and higher. That's the reality for many in Queensland, where the housing market is booming even as other parts of Australia cool down. But is this boom sustainable, and what does it mean for you? Let's dive in.
Property data suggests that Queensland's housing market will become even more expensive by 2026. While price growth might be slowing down in major southern cities like Sydney and Melbourne, the Sunshine State is telling a different story. This divergence creates a stark contrast: a celebration for current homeowners, but a growing frustration for those trying to enter the market.
According to CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless, owning a home in Queensland right now is fantastic news. "If you own a home, that's great news," he stated. "But if you don't, it's probably becoming increasingly frustrating, how fast values are rising and how much it costs to get your foot in the door." He even went so far as to say, "Brisbane is extraordinarily unaffordable now."
To put it in perspective, Brisbane property values jumped by 1.6% in December alone. That translates to an average increase of nearly $16,000 per property, encompassing both houses and units. Now, compare that to Sydney and Melbourne, which saw values dip by 0.1%. This decline in Australia's two largest cities marked the first month-on-month fall since January of the previous year, highlighting Queensland's unique trajectory.
Brisbane's rapid transformation is noteworthy. "Brisbane has gone from being a market that's around the middle-to-lower end of the pack for affordability, to one that's now getting pretty close to one of the most unaffordable markets," explains Mr. Lawless. "And the annual growth rate for Brisbane, at 14.5 per cent, implies the market is up about $131,000 over the year." And this is the part most people miss: the speed of this shift is what's truly concerning.
Interestingly, the unit sector is experiencing the most rapid growth. This trend suggests that more buyers are considering apartments as a more affordable entry point compared to houses. But here's where it gets controversial... Is this a long-term solution, or simply a band-aid on a larger affordability problem?
Mr. Lawless also points out increased investment in South-East Queensland, with investors tending to be more active in the apartment sector. He also highlights an ongoing undersupply of housing, with limited new construction across the board. This supply shortage further exacerbates the price pressures.
Within Greater Brisbane, certain areas have seen particularly significant growth. The top 10 areas with the biggest increases include Springwood-Kingston (19.5%), Sunnybank, Nathan, Rocklea-Acacia Ridge, Forest Lake-Oxley, Inner Ipswich, Chermside, Capalaba, Mt Gravatt, and Strathpine (16.1%).
Regional Areas Take the Lead
Beyond Brisbane, regional areas west of the capital have emerged as major winners. Homes on the Granite Belt, for example, now boast an average value of $592,873, representing a remarkable 20.4% increase over 12 months. Think about that for a moment – in just one year, the value of a home increased by over 20% in some areas!
"Toowoomba, the Granite Belt, the eastern area of the Darling Downs – they've all seen housing values rise between 18 and 20 per cent over the past 12 months," Mr. Lawless noted. "Markets like Charters Towers also have seen a really strong rate of growth – up 16 per cent. South of Cairns, Central Highlands – including Emerald – and Maryborough. They're all in the top 10 growth regions." Other suburbs in that regional "top 10" list included Ormeau-Oxenford and Nerang on the Gold Coast, and northern areas of the Bowen Basin.
Mr. Lawless attributes this regional growth to affordability, economic diversity, and access to essential amenities like schools and healthcare. This highlights a key factor: people are moving to areas that offer a better balance of cost and lifestyle.
Looking ahead to 2026, Mr. Lawless predicts a slowing of price growth, potentially influenced by interest rate hikes. "I think there will be a slowing. But I don't think we'll see values going backwards simply because of the low supply in the market and population growth, particularly interstate migration coming into south-east Queensland that remains quite high. That, of course, supports demand," he explained.
He also cautions that the current rate of growth is unsustainable. "It's clearly an unsustainable brand of growth we're seeing across many Queensland markets, not just Brisbane. I think we're seeing the first signs of that momentum leaving the marketplace. We have seen a few months now where the rate of growth remains very high, but it is slowing down."
Impact on Renters
These trends will inevitably impact renters as well. "It's going to be a very tight rental market, rents are still going to rise. The past 12 months, we've seen Brisbane rents rise about 6.2 per cent – that's a larger rate of growth than the national average, at 5.2 per cent," Mr. Lawless said. This means renters are facing increased competition and higher costs.
He also points out that rents have already risen substantially over the past five years, leading to more group households and multi-generational households forming. This is a direct consequence of affordability pressures, as people seek alternative living arrangements to cope with rising costs.
"We've got a vacancy rate across Brisbane of 2.1 per cent. It's a lot lower across the apartment market – 1.4 per cent, only marginally off record lows," Mr. Lawless said. "House vacancy rates are 2.4 per cent. A normal, health vacancy rate is probably closer to 3.5 per cent." This underscores the severity of the rental shortage, making it even more difficult for people to find suitable housing.
So, what does all of this mean for the future of the Queensland housing market? Will prices continue to climb, or will the predicted slowdown bring some relief? And, crucially, what can be done to address the underlying issues of affordability and supply? Share your thoughts and predictions in the comments below!
