A complex diplomatic dance is unfolding in the Middle East, with potential consequences for thousands of Australians stranded in the Gulf region. This intricate story involves backchannel negotiations and a delicate balance of interests between Gulf countries and Iran, amidst the threat of a broader conflict.
The Australian government is actively working on evacuation plans for its citizens and expatriates in the Gulf, with commercial flights currently being the most viable option. However, the situation is far from straightforward, as air strikes on military bases, such as Al Dhafra in the UAE, have limited the RAAF's operations there.
But here's where it gets controversial... While land transport options are being explored, the congested border crossings with Oman and the limited capacity of Muscat's airport make it challenging to evacuate large numbers of travellers.
As of now, commercial flights to Australia are extremely limited, with only two flights recorded so far. This has left many travellers in a state of limbo, waiting desperately for their turn to board a flight.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong has mentioned that around 115,000 Australians are located in the Gulf region, but this number includes expatriates. The actual number of travellers, especially those in transit, is believed to be significantly lower.
And this is the part most people miss... Despite the relatively small number of travellers, the Australian government faces a daunting task in coordinating their evacuation. The sophisticated air defense systems in the UAE have successfully repelled most of the missiles and drones launched by Iran, but the concern remains about the sustainability of these defenses.
If the UAE or other Gulf states start running low on these expensive air defenses, the risk of major missile attacks on civilian targets increases significantly. This could prompt a change in perspective for the thousands of expats currently content to stay in the region.
To prepare for potential large-scale evacuations, six crisis groups have been deployed. The resumption of flights is a result of negotiations between Gulf states and Iran, facilitated by Oman and Qatar.
On Tuesday, the UAE announced the establishment of a "safe corridor," allowing approximately 48 flights per hour to depart. This arrangement has facilitated the travel of 17,498 passengers on 60 flights between March 1st and March 3rd, with more flights scheduled.
So, what's the deal? According to multiple sources, the reopening of UAE airspace is a result of backchannel diplomacy with Iran. Prior to the attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States, the UAE made commitments to Iran that it would not permit its territory or airspace to be used for hostile operations against Iran.
A three-way deal was struck between the aviation authorities of the UAE, Oman, and Iran, allowing for the limited reopening of a specific flight corridor away from Iran and the northern Persian Gulf. Iran agreed not to target or "lock on" commercial aircraft, ensuring their safety.
This deal, negotiated to clear the backlog of stranded passengers, is not expected to last indefinitely. It primarily involves "special" flights rather than regular scheduled services, which may explain the confusion surrounding flight suspensions and departures.
During the negotiations, Iran indicated that it had carried out a "retaliatory" wave of air strikes, including the one that caused damage to Dubai International Airport. However, they claimed that the first wave of strikes had concluded.
These negotiations highlight the vested interests of Gulf States in avoiding direct involvement in hostilities with Iran. Countries like the UAE, which have built their economies on being safe havens in the Middle East, have much to lose from direct hostilities.
On the other hand, they stand to gain by restoring at least some of their air services, maintaining confidence in their long-term future as vital air transport hubs.
This intricate diplomatic dance showcases the delicate balance of power and interests in the region, with potential implications for the safety and well-being of Australians stranded in the Gulf.
What are your thoughts on this complex situation? Do you think the Gulf States are making the right moves to protect their interests and the safety of their residents and visitors? Feel free to share your insights and opinions in the comments below!
