Hold onto your seats, movie buffs, because the box office is about to heat up in ways you might not expect! But here's where it gets controversial: Avatar: Fire and Ash, despite its massive hype, is trailing behind its predecessor, The Way of Water, in pre-sale numbers. Could this be a sign of franchise fatigue, or is there more to the story? Let’s dive in.
December 5, 2025
Posted by Shawn Robbins (https://boxofficetheory.com/author/boxofficetheory/)
For the full scoop, check out the detailed report in Box Office Theory’s Substack newsletter (https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-28-years-later-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-soulm8te).
Key Tracking Factors & Rationale:
Avatar: Fire and Ash is facing stiffer competition than its predecessor, but don’t count it out just yet. Audiences might be holding off for premium screenings, and early social media buzz is overwhelmingly positive. And this is the part most people miss: It’s not about the opening weekend—it’s about the long-term staying power. Will it live up to the hype? Only time will tell.
For the same weekend, David and The Housemaid are shaping up to be strong counter-programmers to the Avatar juggernaut. Both films are tracking well as diverse alternatives, but their pre-sale trends are a bit unpredictable. Will they hold their ground against the blockbuster? It’s a toss-up.
Looking ahead to 2026, January is typically slow, but a few films could shake things up. Bold prediction: Greenland 2: Migration is banking on Gerard Butler’s fan base and its PG-13 rating to replicate the first film’s at-home success. But will it resonate in theaters?
Here’s where it gets tricky: Primate and Soulm8te are both horror-thrillers releasing on the same weekend. Primate has strong critical reviews but weak social media buzz and an R-rating, while Soulm8te, a M3GAN spin-off, lacks commercial momentum after the sequel’s underperformance. Which one will survive the weekend?
Mid-January brings 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, a franchise favorite with Ralph Fiennes leading the charge. While it may not match the pent-up demand of its predecessor, it’s expected to draw enough fans to greenlight the next installment. But is the franchise running out of steam?
6-Week Box Office Calendar, Tracking & Forecasts
as of 12/4/25
(Full ranges and pinpoint forecasts are available to paid subscribers in our Substack newsletter.) (https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-28-years-later-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-soulm8te)
| Release Date | Title | Distributor | 3-Day (FSS) LOW-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) HIGH-END Opening | 3-Day (FSS) PINPOINT Opening Forecast | Domestic Total LOW-END | Domestic Total HIGH-END | Domestic Total PINPOINT Forecast |
|--------------|-------|-------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------|
| 12/12/2025 | Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas (25th Anniversary) | Universal Pictures | $2,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $3,500,000 | $4,600,000 | $11,500,000 | $12,300,000 |
| 12/12/2025 | Ella McCay | Disney | $1,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $2,500,000 | $10,000,000 | $5,500,000 |
| 12/12/2025 | The Shining (45th Anniversary) | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,000,000 | $4,000,000 | $2,500,000 | $3,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $4,000,000 |
| 12/19/2025 | Avatar: Fire and Ash | Disney | $95,000,000 | $115,000,000 | $103,000,000 | $475,000,000 | $560,000,000 | $510,000,000 |
| 12/19/2025 | David | Angel Studios | $20,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $83,000,000 | $125,000,000 | $110,000,000 |
| 12/19/2025 | The Housemaid | Lionsgate | $18,000,000 | $25,000,000 | $24,000,000 | $71,000,000 | $136,000,000 | $108,000,000 |
| 12/19/2025 | The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants | Paramount Pictures | $15,000,000 | $23,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $95,000,000 | $156,000,000 | $105,000,000 |
| 12/25/2025 | Anaconda (2025) | Sony Pictures | $15,000,000 | $23,000,000 | $18,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $83,000,000 | $70,000,000 |
| 12/25/2025 | Marty Supreme (Expansion) | A24 | $10,000,000 | $15,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $36,000,000 | $57,000,000 | $48,000,000 |
| 12/25/2025 | Song Sung Blue | Focus Features | $7,000,000 | $12,000,000 | $8,000,000 | $27,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $38,000,000 |
| 1/9/2026 | Greenland 2: Migration | Lionsgate | $11,000,000 | $16,000,000 | available on Substack | $26,500,000 | $43,000,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | I Was a Stranger (Expansion) | Angel Studios | $2,000,000 | $5,000,000 | available on Substack | $5,000,000 | $20,000,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | Primate | Paramount Pictures | $4,000,000 | $9,000,000 | available on Substack | $10,000,000 | $24,000,000 | |
| 1/9/2026 | Soulm8te | Universal Pictures | $5,000,000 | $10,000,000 | available on Substack | $12,000,000 | $27,000,000 | |
| 1/16/2026 | 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple | Sony Pictures | available on Substack | | | | | |
Final Thought: These forecasts are based on current trends and are subject to change. The box office is a dynamic beast, and surprises are always around the corner. What do you think? Will Avatar: Fire and Ash dominate, or will smaller films steal the spotlight? Let us know in the comments!
